Eco-data wrap up 5-21-26

Starts, Claims and Philly Fed MFG

Starts, Claims and Philly Fed MFG

Housing starts moved lower in April, dropping by 2.8% month to month. Starts fell sharply for one-unit construction, which dropped by 9%; 2-4 unit construction, which is volatile, fell by 72%; five or more unit construction rose by 14%, creating some mixed feedback from the housing sector. Year-over-year total starts are up by 4.6%, while single-family units are down by 2.4%; two-to-four-unit starts are down by 66%; and five-or-more-unit starts are up by 23%. Mortgage rates remain high; they have been fluctuating and moving back up as the inflation data have worsened.

Jobless claims continue to run at a low level and continue to ride a modest trend lower, with claims sticking barely above the 200,000 mark, which is historically quite low. Despite stories about people losing their jobs and AI displacement, we don’t see it in jobless claims data yet.